June 10-13, 2014
Session: Optimization, uncertainty analysis and decision making
Conveners: Sergey Oladyshkin, Velimir V Vessilinov
Description: Environmental management deals with one of the largest and most important classes of complex dynamic systems. Real-world environmental management problems require an integrated systems approach that incorporates robust and defensible tools for model optimization, uncertainty analysis and decision making. Environmental management is frequently influenced by controversial and politically charged issues such as climate changes, carbon sequestration, hydro fracturing, gas and oil exploration, in-situ mining, waste disposition, etc. These problems involve interactions and feedbacks between various processes and represent uncertainty at multiple levels and scales (temporal and spatial). For this reason, society needs a better understanding of the environment in order to have an efficient and safe interaction for the sake of maximized welfare and sustainability in resources management. This session will explore how conceptual and data uncertainties are represented and evaluated, how optimization techniques are applied to reduce uncertainties through data collection and model analyses, and how uncertainty quantification in coupled with risk analysis and decision support. Of interest are probabilistic and non-probabilistic metrics used to judge models against data, rank alternative models and test hypotheses; sensitivity analyses used to unravel sources of uncertainty; and data collection strategies optimized for uncertainty reduction. This session solicits abstracts proposing innovative approaches and demonstrations of new or current methods related to complex environmental management problems.